Investor Expo strategy

12/13/19

1. Risk not more than 2% of your portfolio value.
2. Limit total portfolio risk to 6%. in other words if you were stopped out on every position in your portfolio you would still retain 94% of te original trading capital.
3. Be realistic about the amount of risk needed too make a profitable trade. don't MAKE a trade fir your risk parameters. 
4. Reward to RISK minimum of 2:1 preferable 3:1 or higher
5. Lock in at-least a portion of a windfall profit. (sell few shares)
6. Never add to or average down a losing position
7. Be willing to stop trading and re-evaluate the markets and your methodology when you encounter a string of losses.

Left shows retail investors trading volume  right shows in institutional investors trading volume.  retail is 1, 3, 5 like But institutional is 10 30 50. look retail people are selling, institutional's are buying. . Retail is making mistake, institutions know better than retail. it shows stock will go up-.  Now many brokers are showing trading volume. sizes are actual completed  trade not just bidding.

Top Dog instruction

Stocks don't trend endlessly, Normally only 20% of time stocks trend. To get more profit you have  to have or face more loosing trades and less winning trades, but loosing trades are small and winning trades are bigger than looser trades so net we get profit. . use 50 day SMA to find trend. if stock goes  above we can say it is trending.

How to accurately define double tops and bottoms.

It is usually defined in a way that doesn’t take into account that it’s a reversal pattern.
If it’s a reversal pattern, then you must have elements in the definition that make a reversal highly probable.

Double bottom happens on extended down trend. otherwise that is not double bottom we can call them as equal bottom.

How to accurately identify a true head and shoulders pattern.

People think  it’s supposed to be a reversal pattern but instead it works as a continuation as well.  If it’s a reversal pattern, then you must have elements in the definition that make a reversal highly probable. There are nuances that can make it a very explosive pattern that produces fast profits. 

The Rubber Band Trade is based on the “reversion to the mean” principle.

There are some very specific rules that will make this a very low risk trade and sometimes can even give you a good win/loss ratio.

50 SMA is center point if price goes below go for Long, price comes/touch to 50 SMA buy to cover, same way if price goes above go for Short, price comes/touches to 50 SMA sell.

if 50 SMA is down (angling down) (down trend) we go only for short, not go for Long even price goes above 50 SMA. 

 Don't go for Long or short near to 50 SMA. Give good gap  then buy. Make sure risk/reward is at-least 1:1 ex bought (SHORT) at 55. for that stop loss is 57 (risk $2) 50 SMA should be near 50 /51. reward $2.

if trend is up go for long don't go for short.
if trend is down go for short, don't go for long.
if trend is flat go both. 
Use stochastic oscillator to enter the trade.

November 21
Performance matrix
Accuracy or Win rate
Total winners/Total trades 

Profit/Loss  Ratio (reward/risk)
Average Profit / Average Loss

Risk Per Position

How to find next day green candle crosses Harami green candle and next day is red candle?

Next day look 15 minutes before close of market and buy/enter. Look 5 days whenever green candle crosses Harami green candle go for LONG/Buy.

If MACD and signal line is very close use MACD histogram to interpret the gap between MACD and signal line

Investor Expo Jan 23
Like aircraft pilot, Create Check list if all re ok then trade/Enter. - simpler trading.

Jan  16 Invester Expo
4 KEYS to a create Bullish watch list
1. Sales Growth
2. EPS estimates  revised upwards
3. Strong margins
4. Relative price strength

Create watch list in finviz (free)
Price, Volume
sales growth qtr over qtr
operating margin
Net profit margin
RSI( should be above 60).

go to zacks  to find EPS estimates  growth rank 1 means good, 2 next good.

IBD (Investor business daily) Market smith screener (Money)

Feb 20 Invester Expo

Feb 06 Investor Expo

High DELTA price change Big, % gain Small.
Low DELTA price change Small, % gain Big.
so prefer delta 0.10 to  0.45

STEALTH TRADE ACTIVITY
option price $.20 to 0.80
Delta 15 to 45

BUTTERFLY & LONG CONDOR
(what is )Delta neutral??